May 2025 Market Report

*Photo by* *Kiril Krsteski* on *Unsplash*

Economic Volatility Injects Uncertainty into Spring Market,
But San Francisco’s House Market Remains Surprisingly Strong

While most of the Bay Area saw significant shifts to more uncertain and uneven markets in April, the SF house market remained characterized by robust demand, though its condo market remained much softer. However, there were indications of increased hesitancy among some buyers as they tried to come to terms with new economic uncertainties both personal and macroeconomic.

Year over year, the supply of homes for sale rose about 9%, a far smaller increase than in other local markets, some of which saw jumps of 70% or more. The number of listings going into contract in April ticked up slightly, though the number of closed sales fell. The quantity of price reductions, which soared in most Bay Area Counties, remained flat from last year. The 3-month-rolling SF median house sales price was unchanged from April 2024, while the median condo sales price declined.

The homes seeing highest demand, and most likely to sell quickly with multiple offers, are houses in absolute move-in condition, often professionally staged, aggressively priced, and in prime locations.

As of early May, the Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged, mortgage rates continued to hover near 7%, but stock markets substantially recovered from early-April plunges. Consumer confidence saw precipitous declines last month amid the enormous political/economic volatility. Specific San Francisco market data follows in this report but note that April sales statistics reflect many transactions that went into contract before the severe financial market conditions which began early in the month. May sales data may better reflect April market conditions.

Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*

By Month since January 2000

The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from analysis of data from 3 sources: 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*

30-Year, Fixed-Rate, JUMBO Mortgage Index*

Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Index since 2018

In 2025, single-family loans with balances above $806,500 in most counties, and $1,209,750 in high-cost areas, are considered jumbo.

Rates vary according to the property, price, borrower and lender.

Financial Markets, 2024 – 2025 YTD

Percentage Increases in S&P 500 & Nasdaq since 1/2/24

House Inventory Absorption Rates

In April 2025, by Bay Area County*

The higher the absorption rate, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to supply of house listings available to purchase. The absorption rate for the SF condo market was 20% in April.

The chart illustrates absorption rates for house markets. Condo markets typically had substantially lower absorption rates (and less heated demand).

San Francisco HOUSE Price Trends since 1990

Monthly Median House Sales Prices, 3-Month Rolling

The 3-month-rolling median house sales price rose moving deeper into spring, but in April 2025 was unchanged year-over-year.

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, disguising an enormous range of sales prices in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart. More often than not, median sales prices peak for the year in spring.

Appreciation is typically mesaured year over year to account for market seasonality.

San Francisco CONDO Price Trends since 2005

Median Condo Sales Price, 3-Month Rolling

The 3-month-rolling median condo sales price in April 2025 jumped from March, but was down about 4% year-over-year.

Generally speaking, over the last 5-6 years, Bay Area median condo sales prices have not seen the appreciation rates common in house markets.

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic, often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, and longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.

San Francisco Value Trends since 2005

3-Month-Rolling, Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*

Until the pandemic, the median $/sq.ft. value for condos (green columns) ran substantially higher than for houses (white line), but that is no longer the case.

Median $/sq.ft. value is a general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.

San Francisco CONDO Prices: Downtown vs. Non-Downtown

6-Month-Rolling, Median 2-Bedroom Condo Sales Prices since 2005*

Comparing median 2-bedroom condo sales prices in the greater Downtown/South of Market/Civic Center area (the center of large-project, new-condo construction, office buildings and high-tech employment) – the white line – with the rest of San Francisco (mostly smaller, older buildings, in less urban environments) – the green line.

Median sales prices also vary widely within these two broad regions.

Median HOUSE Sales Prices – Selected Neighborhoods*

This is a sampling of values across some of San Francisco’s 70+ neighborhoods, w/ high sales prices of $5 million+*

Presidio Heights: $8,300,000 (High Sale: $24,000,000)
Pacific Heights: $5,800,000 (High Sale: $70,000,000 (off-MLS sale), $29,150,000 (MLS sale))
Cow Hollow: $4,650,000 (High Sale: $8,800,000)
Sea Cliff: $4,275,000 (High Sale: $26,000,000)
St. Francis Wood: $4,237,500 (High Sale: $7,250,000)
Cole Valley-Ashbury Heights: $3,933,000 (High Sale: $6,250,000)
Marina: $3,775,000 (High Sale: $10,750,000)
Lake Street/Jordan Park: $3,725,000 (High Sale: $6,370,000)
Forest Hill: $2,655,000 (High Sale: $22,100,000)
Noe & Eureka Valleys: $2,622,000 (High Sale: $7,150,000)
Inner Richmond: $2,400,000
Central Richmond: $1,875,000
Glen Park: $1,860,000 (High Sale: $6,200,000)
Golden Gate Heights: $1,851,000
Central Sunset: $1,630,000
Inner Mission: $1,626,000
Miraloma Park: $1,619,000
Bernal Heights: $1,580,000
Potrero Hill: $1,570,000 (High Sale: $5,655,000)
Outer Parkside: $1,457,000
Sunnyside: $1,359,000
Ingleside: $1,160,000
Excelsior: $1,122,500
Visitacion Valley: $970,000
Bayview: $918,500

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general measurement of value that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales, and how it applies to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Many factors affect home values: architectural style, quality of construction, square footage, condition, amenities, light, views, privacy, outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. \

Median CONDO Sales Prices – Selected Neighborhoods*

12 Months Sales* Condo Market Dynamics

This is a sampling of values across some of San Francisco’s 70+ neighborhoods. With high sales of $3 million+*

Presidio Heights: $1,838,000 (High Sale: $4,995,000)
Cow Hollow: $1,795,000 (High Sale: $4,425,000)
Noe Valley: $1,637,500 (High Sale: $3,300,000(
Marina: $1,575,000 (High Sale: $4,600,000)
Lake Street/Jordan Park: $1,550,000
Cole Valley-Ashbury Heights: $1,512,500
Eureka Valley:$1,500,000 (High Sale: $3,225,000)
Pacific Heights: $1,497,500 (High Sale: $16,000,000 (co-op), $7,300,000 (condo))
Lone Mountain: $1,476,000
Inner/Central Richmond: $1,425,000
Russian Hill: $1,400,000 (High Sale: $8,500,000 (co-op), $6,495,000 (condo))
Duboce Triangle: $1,400,000 (High Sale: $3,150,000)
Inner Sunset: $1,348,500
NoPa: $1,325,000
South Beach: $1,267,000 (High Sale: $11,250,000)
Nob Hill: $1,197,500 (High Sale: $7,250,000)
Hayes Valley: $1,095,000
Potrero Hill: $1,050,000 (High Sale: $3,425,000)
Inner Mission: $992,500
Dogpatch: $959,500
Mission Bay: $932,500 (High Sale: $3,275,000)
SoMa: $702,500 (High Sale: $3,850,000)
Van Ness/Civic Center: $644,000
Hunter's Point: $595,500

Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Many factors affect condo prices: square footage, architectural style, views, quality of construction, the floor the unit is on, condition, HOA amenities and cost, deeded outdoor space, parking, and so on.

New Listings Coming on Market

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality*

The number of new listings in April 2025 ticked up from March, but was basically unchanged year over year.

Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month*

San Francisco Homes Market

The number of listings for sale continued to rise, and on 5/1/25 was up 9% year over year. Of these listings, 29% were houses, and 71% were condos, co-ops, TICs & townhouses.*

The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on the market, 2) how quickly buyers put them unto contract, 3) the sustained heaet of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.

Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Chart: Listings Accepting Offers — Residential activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Will not include new-project condo activity not reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.

The number of listings going into contract in April 2025 increased slightly from March and was up about 3% year over year.

The number of listings going into contract is an indicator of future sales.

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

San Francisco: Absorption Rate by Month

The absorption rate in April 2025 ticked up from March. For houses alone, the rate was about 36%, and for condos, 20%, reflecting their respective supply and demand dynamics.

Absorption rate measures buyer demand vs. the supply of listings for sale: The higher the percentage, the more heated and competitive the market.

Monthly Home Sales Volume*

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Sales volume in April 2025 increased slightly from March, but declined 6% year over year.

House sales made up 50.5% of April 2025 sales, and condos, co-ops and TICs made up 49.5%.

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month, i.e. they are a lagging indicator of market conditions.

Luxury Home Sales, $5 Million+*

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

$5 million home sales in April 2025 ticked down slightly from March and declined by a couple sales from April 2024.

The luxury home market is fiercely seasonal: High sales activity in spring, then slowing in summer, rebounding in fall, and plunging in mid-winter.

Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.

San Francisco Luxury House Sales*

Houses Selling for $5 Million+ since 2020

Luxury house sales dropped back in April 2025 and declined 40% year over year.

The luxury home market is fiercely seasonal: High sales activity in spring, then slowing in summer, rebounding in fall, and plunging in mid-winter.

San Francisco Luxury Condo & Co-op Sales*

Units Selling for $2.5 Million+ since 2019

Luxury condo sales soared in April 2025 to their highest monthly count since May 2022.

The luxury home market is typically very seasonal in nature: High sales activity in spring, then slowing in summer, rebounding in fall, and dropping in mid-winter.

Price Reductions on Active Listings

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season, but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market. The number of price reductions in April 2025 was unchanged year over year.

Percentage of Active Listings with Price Reductions*

Year over year, the percentage of listings with price reductions in April 2025 was unchanged year over year.

This chart illustrates the percentage of homes listed for sale which have undergone one or more price reductions.*

Overbidding List Prices in San Francisco

Percentage of Home Sales Closing over List Price

Overbidding is generally caused by buyer competition for new listings. The overall overbidding percentage in the latest month was 57% of sales, but for houses alone, it was 78%, and for condos, 35%.

This statistic fluctuates according to seasonal demand trends, and is a lagging indicator of market activity 3-6 weeks earlier.

Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale

San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality

Chart: Average Days on Market — Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.

This chart illustrates average days on market for all residential sales (38 days in April 2025). But for houses alone, the average was 24 days, and for condos, 50 days.

Measuring how long it takes for sold listings to accept offers. Homes usually sell fastest in spring and early autumn, and slowest in mid-winter. Houses, on average, sell much faster than condos, co-ops and TICs.

Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage

San Francisco Over/Under Bidding: Market Dynamics & Seasonality

This chart illustrates the average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage for all residential sales. But overbidding has been much more common and dramatic for house sales than for condo sales: For houses alone, the average was 14% above list price, and for condos, .5% above list price.

This statistic can be distorted by strategic underpricing strategies by listing agents.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

May 2025 Market Report

Economic Volatility Injects Uncertainty into Spring Market, But San Francisco’s House Market Remains Surprisingly Strong

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*

30-Year, Fixed-Rate, JUMBO Mortgage Index*

Financial Markets, 2024 – 2025 YTD

House Inventory Absorption Rates

San Francisco HOUSE Price Trends since 1990

San Francisco CONDO Price Trends since 2005

San Francisco Value Trends since 2005

San Francisco CONDO Prices: Downtown vs. Non-Downtown

Median HOUSE Sales Prices – Selected Neighborhoods*

Median CONDO Sales Prices – Selected Neighborhoods*

New Listings Coming on Market

Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month*

Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

Monthly Home Sales Volume*

Luxury Home Sales, $5 Million+*

San Francisco Luxury House Sales*

San Francisco Luxury Condo & Co-op Sales*

Price Reductions on Active Listings

Percentage of Active Listings with Price Reductions*

Overbidding List Prices in San Francisco

Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale

Average Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage

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Economic Volatility Injects Uncertainty into Spring Market,
But San Francisco’s House Market Remains Surprisingly Strong