October 2025 Market Report
Photo by Sasha • Make Stories Studio on Unsplash
San Francisco’s real estate market has experienced a remarkable surge in recent months, likely driven by the city’s rapidly expanding AI start-up sector. Rents are now rising at the fastest rate in the country, while median home prices have increased year over year.
September saw significant growth across several key indicators: home sales, luxury property transactions, and listings going into contract all surpassed levels from September 2024. Although new listings nearly doubled from August, the year-over-year number of active listings — along with the volume of price reductions — fell sharply.
This combination of rising demand and shrinking supply is putting intense pressure on the market, fueling further competition and price acceleration. October sales data will give us further insight into the autumn selling season, before activity typically begins to slow down in November for the mid-winter holidays.
As of early October, 30-year mortgage rates, at about 6.3%, were essentially unchanged from early September (but well down from 7% in early 2025): The Fed’s first 2025 reduction of its benchmark rate, of .25%, had little effect, though consensus opinion is that further cuts are probably coming before the end of the year. Inflation continued to tick up slightly, while stock markets hit new all-time highs. Nationally, consumer confidence remained low, with significant concerns regarding personal finances, employment and inflation – though affluent consumers deeply invested in stock markets were less concerned than low and middle income segments.
Report created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last period figures are preliminary estimates based on data available early in the following month. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.
San Francisco House Price Trends
Median House Sales Prices since 2012, by Quarter
As reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Broker Metrics or Infosparks. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported sales.
The Q3 2025 median house sales price fell back from Q2 (as is the usual seasonal dynamic), but was up about 3.2% year over year.
Median sales price is that price where half the homes sold for more and half for less, and can be affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. It is a very general statistic that disguises a wide range of prices in the underlying sales.
Seasonal fluctuations are common, and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in Q2.
San Francisco Condo Price Appreciation
Median Condo Sales Prices, 2012 – Present, by Quarter
As reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Broker Metrics/Infosparks. All numbers are approximate and subject to revision. Last quarter may change with late reported activity. Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS.
After the big Q2 price surge, the Q3 2025 median condo sales price fell back, but its 6-month rolling median sales price is up 2.2% year over year.
Seasonal fluctuations are common. It is not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the calendar year in Q2. Different city districts have seen varying median price trends.
San Francisco Value Trends since 2005
3-Month-Rolling, Median Dollar per Square Foot Values*
*3-month rolling median house sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Median $/sq.ft. value is a general statistic, disguising an enormous range of values in the underlying sales. It is often affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Monthly and seasonal fluctuations are common, which explain many of the regular ups and downs in this chart.
San Francisco CONDO Prices: Downtown vs. Non-Downtown
12-Month-Rolling, Median 2-Bedroom Condo Sales Prices since 2005*
*12-month rolling median condo sales values reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. Does not include new-project sales unreported to MLS. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Comparing median 2-bedroom condo sales prices in the greater Downtown/South of Market/Civic Center area (the center of large-project, new-condo construction, office buildings and high-tech employment) – the blue line – with the rest of San Francisco (mostly smaller, older buildings, in less urban environments) – the green line.Median sales prices also vary widely within these two broad regions.
San Francisco Home Sales, 2023-2025
Year-over-Year, Year-to-Date Sales by Price Segment*
*All attached and detached home sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance through September of each year, per Infosparks. Not all sales are reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and may change with late reported sales.
Condo & TICs dominate SF sales
under $1,000,000.If prices rise, some sales are pushed into higher price segments. Sales volume is affected by both buyer demand and the number of homes available to purchase.
Median Resident Income
Residents 25+ Years of Age, by Bay Area County
2024 inflation adjusted estimates. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. Published with margins of error. All numbers approximate.
Per U.S. Census 2024 1-Year ACS estimates published September 2025
San Francisco Demographic Snapshot
Median Resident Earnings & Percentage of Population by Level of Education*
* U.S. Census 2024 ACS 1-Year Estimates, published September 2025. Residents 25+ years of age.Income estimates pertain to residents with earnings,. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Estimates often published with significant margins of error.
San Francisco is one of the most educated and affluent counties in the country. Of California counties, it has the 2nd highest percentage of residents (after Marin) holding either Bachelor’s, Graduate or Professional degrees.
Among holders of bachelor’s, graduate and professional degrees, median earnings can vary enormously depending on the specialty of the degree, i.e. liberal arts, education, social services, business, computer science, law, medicine and so on.
New Listings Coming on Market
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality*
*August figure estimated using data available in early September. Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. May not include “coming-soon” listings. All numbers approximate.
The number of new listings surged dramatically in September 2025 from August – to its highest count of 2025 YTD – but declined 10% year over year.
San Francisco Homes Market
Active & Coming-Soon Listings on 1st of Month*
* Houses, condos, co-ops, TICs, townhouses: Active/Coming-Soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance. Does not include new-project condos not listed on MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. The # of active listings changes constantly.
The number of listings for sale on 10/1/25 rebounded modestly from the previous month, but plunged 28% year over year. 29% of listings were houses, 59% condos, 8% TICs, and 4% co-ops.*
The # of active listings on a given day is affected by 1) the # of new listings coming on market,how quickly buyers put them into contract, 3) the sustained heat of the market over time, and 4) sellers pulling their homes off the market without selling.
Year-over-Year % Change in Number of Active Listings on Market
by Bay Area County, as of October 1, 2025*
Comparing the number of active listings on 10/1/25 to the number on 10/1/24
*Active/coming-soon listings posted to NorCal MLS Alliance on October 1st 2025 and 2024. Percentages rounded. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all homes for sale are posted to MLS. All numbers approximate.
San Francisco was the only Bay Area County that saw a year-over-year decline in its number of active listings on 10/1/25 – and it was a very substantial decline. This is helping to pressurize its real estate market.
Napa & Sonoma Counties have seen the largest year-over-year % increases in their number of listings on the market.
Inventory trends can vary between submarkets, price segments and property types within the same county.
Pending Ratio
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality*
*August figure estimated using data available in early September. Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted on site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
The pending ratio is a version of absorption rate: The higher the percentage, the greater the demand as compared to the supply of listings available to buy.
The pending ratio in September 2025 was the highest September percentage since the peak of the pandemic boom. It is the only Bay Area County that saw a year-over-year increase in its pending ratio – and it was a very substantial increase: 15 percentage points.
Listings Accepting Offers (Going into Contract)
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Residential activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Will not include new-project condo activity not reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.
Demand, as measured by the number of listings going into contract, typically climbs through spring, declines in summer, rebounds in early fall, and plunges in December. Besides demand, sales activity can be constrained by the number of homes available to buy.
Fueled by demand and the surge of new listings, the number of homes going into contract in September 2025 soared 57% from August and 42% from September 2024 – to its highest September count since 2021.
Monthly Home Sales Volume*
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
*Sales of houses, condos, townhouses reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Does not include new-project condo sales unreported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. Last month estimated based on available information and may change with late reported sales. All numbers approximate.
Sales in one month mostly reflect accepted offers in the previous month.
The number of sales in September 2025 rose about 35% from September 2024. It can be expected to surge substantially higher in October.
House sales made up approximately 43% of September 2025 sales, and condos, co-ops, TICs and townhouses made up 57%.
Year-over-Year % Change in Monthly Number of Home Sales
by Bay Area County, September 2025 Sales*
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Estimates based on data available on 10/3/25. Percentages rounded. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
San Francisco Luxury Home Sales by Quarter
Houses $5,000,000+ / Condos & Co-ops $3,000,000+
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. “Condo/Co-op” sales include TICs and townhouses. Not all luxury home sales are reported. Data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Q3 2025 luxury home sales dropped back from Q2 – as is the usual seasonal trend – but were 37% higher than in Q3 2024 to hit its highest Q3 count since 2021. (On a monthly basis, not illustrated here, September 2025 luxury home sales rose 55% year over year.)
The market for luxury homes fluctuates by season, with spring (Q2) typically the most active market of the year.
Price Reductions on Active Listings
San Francisco Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Per Realtor.com Research: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/, listings posted to site. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
In September 2025, price reductions declined 32% from September 2024 – to the lowest September count in 4+ years.
The number of price reductions typically ebbs and flows by season, but can also be affected by specific events in the economy and the market.
Percentage of Sales Over List Price
San Francisco Market Dynamics by Quarter
Residential activity reported to NorCal MLS Alliance, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate and may change with late-reported activity.
In Q3 2025, 72% of house sales and 31% of condo sales sold for over the list price. This chart illustrates the % for all home sales: 50%. (On a monthly basis, not illustrated here, in September 2025 the percentage selling over list price was 62.5%.)
Higher overbidding percentages signify a higher level of competition for new listings.
Avg. Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage
San Francisco Market Dynamics since 2018, by Quarter
Residential market activity reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Percentages rounded, all numbers are approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
100% signifies an average sales price at original list price. This metric can be distorted by underpricing strategies.
Average Days on Market – Speed of Sale
San Francisco Market Dynamics by Quarter
Time to acceptance of offer for sold listings. Activity reported to NORCAL MLS® ALLIANCE, per Infosparks. “Condos” include co-op and TIC sales. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported sales.
Generally speaking, the lower the average days on market to acceptance of offer, the stronger the buyer demand. House listings (white line) typically sell twice as fast as condos, co-ops & TICs (purple columns).
Median House Sales Prices & Year-over-Year % Change
by Bay Area County, 2025 YTD Sales*
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 by September 30, 2025, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of sales prices in the individual underlying sales. It may fluctuate for reasons other than changes in fair market value. Median house sizes vary between counties, and counties contain submarkets of widely different values. How these prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a comparative market analysis.
Median House Dollar per Square Foot Value
by Bay Area County, 2025 YTD Sales*
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 by September 30, 2025, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Dollar per square foot is calculated on interior livable space and does not include garages, attics, basements, storage rooms, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or lot size. Values are affected by location, age, quality of construction, condition, architectural style, home size, lot size, views, parking, amenities and many other factors. Counties contain submarkets of widely different values, and how these values apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median 2-Bedroom Condo Sales Prices
by Bay Area County, 2025 YTD Sales*
Sales reported to NorCal MLS Alliance in 2025 by September 30, 2025, per Infosparks. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Not all sales are reported to MLS. All numbers approximate and may change with late-reported sales.
Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that typically disguises an enormous range of sales prices in the individual underlying sales. It may fluctuate for reasons other than changes in fair market value. Median condo sizes vary between counties, and counties contain submarkets of widely different values.
Selected Economic Indicators
Mortgage Interest Rates in 2023-2025 YTD
30-Year Conforming Fixed-Rate Loans, Weekly Average Readings*
*Freddie Mac (FHLMC), 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Weekly Average: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. Data from sources deemed reliable. Different sources of mortgage data sometimes vary in their determinations of daily and weekly rates. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors. All numbers approximate.
Per Freddie Mac (FHLMC), on October 2, 2025 the weekly average, 30-year, conforming-loan interest rate rose slightly to 6.34%.
Federal Funds Interest Rate since 1981
& Economic Interventions by Federal Reserve Bank*
* Per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and New York; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS; Last reading per https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr. Other data referenced from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, and then by a quarter point in November and December. This past September, the rate was reduced for the first time in 2025 by another quarter point. Further cuts are expected.
Nasdaq Composite Index
Since January 1995
Per https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM. Because of number of data points, not every week has a separate column. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. For general illustration purposes only.
The Nasdaq hit a new all-time high in early October 2025. The S&P 500 Index, not illustrated here, also hit a new peak. Changes in stock market values have a large impact on housing markets, especially more affluent, higher price segments.
“The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of more than 2,500 stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a broad index that is heavily weighted toward the important technology sector.” Investopedia.com
Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI), 2021 – 2025 YTD*
Year-over-Year Percentage Change, by Month
*Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average [CPIAUCSL], per Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=8dGq. Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPIAUCSL is a price index of a basket of goods and services paid by urban consumers. This index includes roughly 88 percent of the total population. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision.
The general “CPI-All Items” inflation reading for August 2025 rose to 2.9%. “Core CPI” (all items except food & energy, not illustrated on this chart) rose to 3.1%.*
The “target inflation rate” for the Federal Reserve Bank is 2%.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index*
By Month since January 2000
*Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, 3-component index, www.PolicyUncertainty.com, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html. Data from sources deemed reliable, but numbers to be considered approximate and subject to revision.
The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index reading in September 2025 declined from August, having plummeted since April’s tariff shock, though remaining high by long-term norms.
The Economic Uncertainty Index is constructed from data analysis of 1) an index of search results from 10 large newspapers for terms related to economic and policy uncertainty, 2) reports by the Congressional Budget Office, and 3) the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters.*
U.S. Jobs Report*
Monthly Change in Number of Jobs, in Thousands*
*U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted”: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth. Last 2 readings are labeled “preliminary” and often substantially revised. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors.
Weak employment growth in recent months has raised both fears regarding the U.S. economy and hopes of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Bank.
Note: BLS often revises its monthly estimates, sometimes very substantially: For example the original May-June 2025 estimate of 291,000 new jobs has been revised down to 6,000.
Bay Area Population
Number of Residents by County
Per U.S. Census 2024 1-Year ACS estimates published September 2025
Bay Area County Sizes
Land Area in Square Miles
Per U.S. Census data
Bay Area Population Density
Residents per Square Mile by County
Per 2024 1-year ACS estimates from the U.S. Census, published 09/2025. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximations.
San Francisco is the second most densely populated city in the country. It has almost 8 times as many residents per square mile as Alameda County and almost a hundred times more than Napa.
Owner & Tenant Occupancy
Percentage of Housing Units, by Bay Area County
Percentage of occupied housing units occupied by owners or tenants. Data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Per U.S. Census 2024 1-Year ACS estimates published September 2025
San Francisco is the only Bay Area County with a majority tenant population (though some cities within other counties also have tenant majorities).
Median Age of Residents
by Bay Area County
Derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
2024 U.S. Census ACS 1-year estimates, released 9/2025
Generally speaking, median age has been increasing across Bay Area counties, and in the United States as a whole. Of CA counties, Marin has the 2nd highest median age (after Nevada County).
Foreign-Born Residents
Percentage of Population, by Bay Area County
These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. Published with margins of error. All numbers approximate.
The largest source of the foreign-born populations of Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa & Solano Counties has been from Asian countries – especially China and India – while in Monterey, Sonoma, Napa, Marin and Santa Cruz, the largest share came from Latin America.
Approximately 55% to 60% of foreign-born Bay Area residents are now naturalized U.S. citizens.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
Photo use under the Creative Commons License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.