Winter 2025 Sacramento Market Snapshot
Photo by Leo_Visions on Unsplash
Ryan Lundquist at Sacramento Appraisal Blog addresses how, contrary to common perception on home value growth, many people have gained no equity over the last four years. The common assumption is that home values reliably increase ~4–5% per year — which would theoretically give a buyer from 2021 about 20% equity by 2025. In reality, home prices in the Sacramento region haven’t followed that pattern recently, and for many buyers there may be little to no equity compared to what they paid four years ago. The following charts he created illustrate this.
Key takeaways:
Flat to modest overall appreciation: Recent years have seen very modest growth, and in some periods median sales prices are essentially unchanged from four years ago. That means a homeowner who bought in 2021 might see current values very similar to their purchase price (or even lower in some cases).
Median metrics aren’t perfect: While median sales price is a useful broad indicator, not every neighborhood or price range follows that trend. Higher-end segments have often outpaced the median, and local variations matter.
Prices down from the peak: Lundquist notes the regional median sales price is down about 8% from mid-2022 peak levels, and Zillow’s local price index shows about a 7.3% decline — consistent with what he sees in many comps.
Market dynamics today: The housing market is described as soft but not deeply weak. Some homes still sell quickly if priced right, but many linger if overpriced. Sellers have been pulling back, and it’s taking about two weeks longer to sell than last year.
Cautious interpretation of stats: Be careful with headline price changes — metrics can bounce around and mean different things depending on source and location.
He also remarks on overall softness in number of listings, which in turn makes comping more difficult. Simply put, with fewer data points, it’s not possible to hone in as precisely. The flip side of that is, since values have been reasonably stable, that you can use older comps and adjust for overall changes in the market.
There are indicators that 2026 will have a stronger market, but there’s no crystal ball to confirm that.